UK Covid Alert: Behaviour that shapes reality

Covid Superspeaders – A Covid Alert update

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Corona Vaccine Wars

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Wuhan 800 – Behaviour that shapes our Reality

It has been three months now in this British lockdown, though this would start with yet another outbreak in china. This time in the Wuhan district of China and yet again with SARS, another Xeno-infection, which apparently had been found in a wet market? But other sources would state that this infection had broken quarantine at a laboratory in the District. Before the general order from the Prime Minister, we spent weeks watching how Italy was handling their already present national emergency, looking for their successes and mistakes made when our time came; this being a new pathogen and no knowledge of how to curb it, mistakes could tell us more than possible successes. Coupled with research and merely the common sense derived from thwarting previous pandemics, we would have to take drastic action, like all other nations. Although, with the death toll, professional approach and measures taken, Italy quickly became the nation the eyes of the world were on to see a way to fight this misery. On the 23^rd March 2020 our Lockdown was announced, but it would soon become clear that infection rates and death tolls would vary from country to country and continent to continent? With Germany’s’ Infection and death rate an anomaly in Western Europe, considering how badly Spain and Italy were affected, but further taking into account that they share borders? On a darker note it has been suggested that when the Virus befell the Italians, France and Germany closed their borders, offering no support and allegedly declaring them ‘dirty Italians’?

Alongside the lockdown, among other ideas, ‘herd immunity’ was proposed! Though quickly this was mocked and shouted down by opposition parties and the British media. Strangely when Covid 19 hit Sweden, ‘Herd immunity’ was also proposed without any ridicule in the British media? With a great deal of money being invested in research, testing and possible Vaccines being tested around the World, Britain seems to be leading the way with the work of Oxford University and GSK; but there are still no Guarantees that this or any of the other vaccines currently going into production will be effective, not least when considering the potential second wave of cases just being reported in Beijing. But further still a potential second wave of cases being reported in South Korea and other nations in Southeast Asia, but so far no coverage has been made of these other apparent outbreaks?

A few weeks on, in the same week Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow health Secretary (Labour Party) asked repeatedly “When are we coming out of lockdown”, then in the same week stated “We just want to know the Governments plan for coming out of lockdown”? Though, he would not be the only person asking these questions. The Government had stated on several occasions stage two would be dependent on the progress of the Virus. Finally, Boris would release his plan, though upon asking Jonathan Ashworth his opinion regarding the plan being released and the details of the plan, he would state “We do not want to come out of lockdown” and later further stating “We don’t feel were ready yet”? (I do wonder whether these statements were irresponsible in nature and may have led the less intelligent or conscientious among the nation, going out more and or being less cautious). What I have personally witnessed is young people especially and many others flagrantly disregarding the 6 foot rule and further, other people’s personal space. My point here is, though there are many that are sceptical about the reality of this pandemic, you cannot dismiss the possibility of its existence and in doing so, respect that although the virus may not damage your health or kill you; the possibility still remains that your carelessness may infect another that will in fact kill them! One of the greatest methods of transmission of a virus is touch and then proximity. In Italy’s case, as they can be more physical with their greetings and interactions with their follow Italians, it has been suggested that this allowed the virus to spread much more quickly. But further, the consideration that Italy was the favourite destination of Chinese tourists to Europe, though this is still just a hypothesis?

Now the British Government has been criticised by the Labour party for locking the country down too late, although they criticise every move, misstep or mistake made by the government. This is quite easy for the opposition, when no one has been in this situation before? Further, as far as Left wing parties are concerned and have repeatedly stated, “Britain has the highest death rate in Europe?” This statement of fact desperately requires scrutiny! Looking at Western European nations that we are so regularly compared with, six factors or variables immediately differentiate us from them. One: France, Spain, Italy and Germany are all dramatically larger than Britain. Two: With the exception of Germany, we have a larger population than our counterparts, but Germany also has a much larger land mass than Britain, and Three: Most importantly is Population Density. There seems to be either a misunderstanding where people to population density is only a factor with much larger populations, or that there are factions within opposition parties, supported by media to convey misinformation making this idea appear as truth. Partly, I believe this is greatly tied into the perceived reality that Britain is not over populated, which statistics do not support, as this would raise issues over immigration control. The reality here is that forgetting immigration as a factor and simply focusing on cold data, England has a population 56 million and average population density of over 760 people per square mile? This is vastly higher in cities like London, at over 2100 people per square mile, but this is purely dependant on the data incorporated from the source you choose to utilise. Despite the facts this is not an overwhelming factor or even a reality for faster and more extensive transmission? In contrast the Population densities of our counterparts are as follows:

France has a Population density of 309 people per square mile and a land mass of 211,413 square miles. The Population of the Paris metropolitan is around 11,000,000 – 13,000,000 with a density of 1,820 per square mile and a land mass of 6,631 square miles. (Though accurate up to date information is hard to come by with regard to the Paris Metro, so this is likely to be slightly out of date?).

Germany has a Population density of 623 people per square mile and a land mass of 134,582 square miles. The Population of the Berlin/Brandenburg Metropolitan is around 6,000,000, with a population density of 500 people per square mile and a land mass of 11,730 square miles.

Belgium has a population density of 987 people per square mile and a land mass of 11,691 square miles. The population of Brussels is around 2,000,000, with a population density of 19,124 per square mile and a land mass of 62.2 square miles.

A clear parallel can be drawn with the US, but more specifically New York City with similar population density issues which has led to soaring infection and death rates. New York state has a population density 421 people per square mile and a land mass of 47,126~ square miles. But the New York City Metropolitan has a population of 18,000,000 – 19,000,000 residents, with 2,409.3 – 5,318 people per square mile in a land mass of 3,450.2 – 8,292.6 square miles. (Again we are at the mercy of source data sets being applied, which does vary with metropolitan areas across Europe also).

Upon deeper research, Britain has a Population density of 727 people per square mile and a land mass of 93,410 square miles. But as Britons know there are three nations on one land mass and the population’s greatest concentration is in England. At a population of 56,000,000 with approx. over 1000 per square mile as a nation, though this can be unravelled further. London – ever expanding and the place that natives and migrants alike flock to. The issue that always confuses people calculating population size, is that London statistical data is always described as just ‘London’, which currently stands at approx. 9,000,000,000. But London is broken into: The City of London, Inner London, Greater London, Outer London and then, the London Metropolitan(which varies according what data your using) and can be between 10 – 18 Million people. This is approx. 3,236 sq. miles with 14,670 people per sq. mile. (Not surprisingly London is one of the hardest cities on which to find accurate data). Then there is Birmingham at 3,649 people per sq. mile, Leeds at 9,440 people per sq. mile, Liverpool at 10,070 people per sq. mile, Leicester at 12,000 people per sq. mile and Manchester at 12,210 people per sq. mile! These are densely populated areas!

The fourth variable in quantifying whether Britain has a higher death rate than in Western Europe is how the data of the number of infections and the death rate is calculated, taking into account Variable two; Western European nations have varying populations sizes, in that death figures are relative to the population size of that nation, so you can only compare data with nations of equal population. If you calculate these data sets to find the percentage per population, then you arrive at a different result? So the assertion that Britain has the highest death rate is already in question!

39,045/67,878,000 = 5.75223194559368e-4 x 100 = 0.0575223% (UK death figures as of 1^st June 20) 43,906/67,878,000 x 100 = 0.0646836% updated 1^st July, 46124/67,878,000 x 100 = 0.0679513% update 1^st August.

33,475/60,463,000 = 5.536443775532144e-4 x 100 = 0.0553644% (Italian death figures as of 1^stJune 20) 34,788/60,463,000 x 100 = 0.0575360% updated 1^st July 20, 35146/60,463,000 x 100 = 0.058128111% updated 1^st August 20.

28,058/46,754,000 = 6.001197758480558e-4 x 100 = 0.0600119% (Spanish death figures as of 1^st June 20) 28,636/46,754,000 x 100 = 0.0612482% updated 1^st July 20, 28454/46,754,000 x100 = 0.060858964% updated 1^st August 20.

9,486/11,588,000 = 8.18605453917846e-4 x 100 = 0.0818605% (Belgium death figures as of 1^st June 20) 9,754/11,588,000 x 100 = 0.0841733% updated 1^st July 20, 9841/11588000 x 100 = 0.084924059% updated 1^st August 20.

28,833/65,270,000 = 4.417496552780757e-4 x 100 = 0.0441749% (French death figures as of 1^st June 20) 29,861/65,270,000 x 100 = 0.0457499% updated 1^st July 20, 30268/65270000 x 100 = 0.046373525% updated 1^st August 20.

29,988/19,440,000 = 0.0036682568807339 x 100 = 0.1542592% (New York death figures as of 1st June 20) 32,534/19,440,000 x 100 = 0.1673559% updated 1^st July 20, 32773/19440000 x 100 = 0.168585391% updated 1^st August 20.

(Figures collected from http://www.WorldMeters.info)

In the Fifth variable, the Labour party pushed and pushed for statistics relating to deaths in nursing homes and other cases outside of hospitals, which it was right to include in the figures, but this would result in the government no longer comparing our data with Europe. Despite the fact that European nations had stated that they were not including deaths in all settings including nursing homes, Keir Starmar the leader of the Labour Party criticised the Prime Minister again and again for not comparing our Death rate with other nations in reports, despite the Prime Minister making it clear that we could not compare figures fairly, it being common knowledge that European figures are calculated differently! Though Keir Starmar would continue to claim that we had the highest Death rate in Europe, we may never find out the true death toll of our counterpart nations?

The Sixth and final variable is what are the top destinations for Chinese students, Chinese holiday makers and residents/nationals. Though there are very few Chinese living in Britain and are grouped as previously stated with other minor population ethnic groups. According to a guardian news report, in 2017-18, there were 106,530 Chinese students studying in the UK. (Interestingly, the largest population of Chinese students in the UK are at the University of Manchester with 5,000 attending)

Although this seems a heavy statistical research piece, there is still one final set of variables that does not get much in the way of exposure, which is population demography: age, ethnicity and ethnicity distribution. There are three further potential variables, but there is a higher level of speculation involved and would require a deeper level of investigation. Currently, there are a group of British Asian doctors collating data in Birmingham to shed some light on the issue of the disproportionate level of ethnic minority deaths. I will try to touch on some of the possible variables that may contribute, but a little later. From the current data, the most effected groups are Bangladeshi, African origin, Indian, Pakistani, Mixed race and people from the Chinese peninsula.

In France, oddly there appears to be laws against the government gathering this kind of statistical data? But from various sources the population of ethnic minorities are as follows: Bangladeshi’s are around 3,500, Pakistanis were 65,000 in 2017, Indian’s 109,000 and African decent accounted for 3-5 million approx. in 2008.

In Germany 2017, Indians accounted 169,602 of the population, Bangladeshi’s currently account for 5000 of the population, African decent around 740,000 and then Pakistanis accounted for 73,975 in 2018. Though Germany appears to have similar issues data gathering issues to France.

In Spain, Bangladeshi’s account for 7000, African decent amount to 1,045,120, Indian’s accounted for 36,070 in 2018 and finally Pakistanis made up 50,554 of the population in 2018.

In Italy, Bangladeshi’s are 70,000, African decent equate to 1,096,089, Indian’s accounting for 197,301 and Pakistanis are at 118,181.

In Britain, the ethnic population figures are somewhat different, with Bangladeshi’s making up 500,000, those of African decent are 1,904,684, Indian’s accounting for 1,451,862 and Pakistanis making up 1,174,983 members of the British population. Further Mixed race account for 2%, but people from the Chinese peninsula is more difficult to calculate as they are generally grouped into the ‘other’ category which encompasses a number of small resident ethnic groups. These ethnic groups are the most at risk from the Corona epidemic, though according to the figures Black people make up the largest population of those at risk groups, with Labour members and Left wing activists stating that Black people had the highest death rates and that this was another show of racism, however, it has been suggested that there have been more deaths among Bangladeshi’s and consequently, these activists have been somewhat quieter since? Considering they were apparently representative of the BAME organisation, this creates a level of ambiguity, which could potentially put the groups at greatest risk in danger for longer. What matters here is the fact that this is being made a political issue by left wing groups, to score points against the Government and anyone who is not compliant, when this is in fact a Social issue. Another factor is that since Windrush, more than 95% of these ethnic minorities live in the major urban centres. London is now only 45% white British, with statistics showing 20.9% are Asian and 15.6% are Black and Black Mixed. This is followed by Birmingham at 19.5% Asian and 6.1% Black, Bradford 25% were Asian in 2011.

New York state has a similarly susceptible ethnic demography to Britain, with 15.64% Black, 8.31% Asian, Native American 0.41% and Pacific islanders/Hawaiian’s making up 0.04%. Although in New York, Black people make up 25.1% and Asians 11.8%, a higher concentration of those at greater risk.

Another possible consideration is the Asian culture of the ‘extended’ family unit, unlike in Western culture where the ‘nuclear’ family is more prevalent. Asian families more commonly have three generations of the same family living in the same household. The relevance of this factor is that as you go down to the second, third generation and even fourth generation, they are less and less likely to show symptoms of the disease and are potentially more and more likely to be carriers of Covid 19. The younger generations are more social and outgoing, with the youngest children unintentionally less conscious of their actions, as has been found in schools, young children are incapable of socially distancing.

Moving onto Diet; this must be a consideration, with the high consumption of red meat, white rice, white potatoes and white Pasta, but not forgetting the low quality of food that had to be accepted after the 2008 crash, that we are still consuming now 12 years on! Further, the lower consumption of vegetables & fruit and or a wide variety of vegetables, these are not simply a cultural issue, they are a social one permeating all races and social classes in the western world. With the creation of the 24 hour society and the increasing levels of poverty due to the continually decreasing levels of pay, in conjunction with rising food and product prices. (Interestingly, big business have openly stated that they have made more money in the years following the 2008 crash than they made before!). Though further with the creation of such companies as ‘Just eat’ and ‘Deliveroo’ has only magnified the ensuing 10.5 Tsunami that is sweeping through the population, with heart disease, digestive disorders, and the modern Syndromes such as Fibromyaglia, ME and Crohn’s disease, moreso though, stress, lack of sleep and the less known overgrowth of gut flora are among a myriad of issues that illustrate that diet does play a part in weaker immune systems. Also, poor air quality and general pollution are invisible but still a very real factor! In these uncertain times, it would be prudent to try to learn what has lead to the modern malaise of general ill health? But, one further big factor that has become a casualty of the current and complacent belief that it has ‘never been a better world’, is exercise! Your grandparents or great grandparents understand these issues and that consumerism, over industrialisation, over the counter Pharmaceuticals, unnecessary use of antibiotics and dubious advertising in the name of profit are erasing simple wisdom? Moving onto the situation of genetic traits, these are also factors that cannot be dismissed easily, though diabetes is not a genetic trait per se, some ethnic groups are more prone to this illness and it does run in families. My final data comparison in this article is age. There are two considerations with regard to age and age groups in relation to Covid 19, which are, population age and risk in relation to age groups. In a BBC news report according to ONS figures, by week ending 27^th March 2020, as seen in the chart below, from the age of 45 years the number of Corona virus deaths increases dramatically and if this was not alarming enough, deaths among the Male population being double that of Women! Although it has been stated by Italian Doctors that in their experience, with contracting and suffering the worst effects of the disease, that age was not a factor? In contemplating this data could you interpolate in the coming Winter, that the cold and flu season would result in lower immunity, from that greater susceptibility? Common sense, increasing your understanding, Knowledge and preparedness, these are our tools and our weapons for fighting this assassin.

Now, last but not least, the Population age. What percentage of the population are over 65 years and at greater susceptability to Corona virus:

The above chart illustrates the number of those at pensionable age to those of median age per nation. What is evident is that if those over 65 were at the highest risk, then the proportion of olderly deaths to should be reflected in the nations with the largest ageing populations?

Italy has 21% of their population over the age of 65 and a median age of 47.3

Germany has 21.6% of their population over the age of 65 and a median age of 45.7

Belgium has 17.6% of their population over the age of 65 and a median age of 41.9

France has 20.4% of their population over the age of 65 and a median age of 42.1

Spain has 19.6% of their population over the age of 65 and a median age of 43.1

Britain has 18% of their population over the age of 65 and a median age of 40.5

New York state has 16% of their population over the age of 65 and a median age of 38.2

But the issue here is as the Second wave hits nations that got off more lightly than others, without immunity or a Vaccine, may see the higher death tolls experienced by countries like Italy and Britain. We can only hope that the second wave now starting is not a mutated strain of the Virus as there may be no immunity for those who have already fought this. The threat of a Second Wave of Corona is predicted for the winter in Britain, which puts the elderly and already compromised potentially at even greater risk. Families and local support networks will need to seriously consider that they may be stretched logistically and even financially, trying to navigate all the potential hazards before them.

Further, as a result of George Floyd’s Death, left-wing activists took to the streets in the US and the UK, but did not adhere social distancing laws and believed that their social cause made them exempt from social responsibility to each other and the rest of the country. What is also clear is that Businesses appear to be taking advantage of the current situation and use Corona Virus to justify no cash sales in retail environments and utilising less staff in all settings. This Shedding of staff needs to be questioned as there are a number of companies that have been making more money during Covid 19 than was made in the same period last year?

With the Second wave now entering Europe, people may ask did Germany lockdown too early, of which the same question could be asked of South Korea and other nations in the South Pacific?

After the full lockdown was loosened in England, despite the government stating on multiple occasions that they would monitor the progress of the disease through the population and the rest of the world, Boris Johnson explained that he would not hesitate to put areas of the country in a new flair-ups, back into full lockdown. But, people went on holiday, partied, filled the beaches and over populated parks & commons? When returning holiday makers from Spain were asked to quarantine, they complained that the Government did not know what they were doing and could not get their act together?? Clearly, they had not been listening, or simply did not care? Without a vaccine and trying to keep the economy running, as with every other country in the western world, alternative thinking and placing confidence in the common sense of the public is the only way to stop more businesses folding and thus avoid an even greater unemployment epidemic.

But the longer it takes to accumulate accurate data, the less current or perhaps relevant are these observations. Think about this another way, the variables detailed above highlight many of the conditions conducive to any pandemic! In the final analysis, for good or for bad, our behaviour consciously and unconsciously does shape our reality!